Urbanization Trends Analysis Using Hybrid Modeling of Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process-Cellular Automata-Markov Chain and Investigating Its Impact on Land Surface Temperature over Gharbia City, Egypt

Quick population increase and the desire for urbanization are main drivers accelerating urban expansion on agricultural lands in Egypt. This issue is obvious governorates with no desert backyards. study aims to (1) explore trend of Land Use Cover Change (LULCC) through period 1991–2018; (2) upgrade reliability predicting LULCC by integrating Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP); (3) perform analysis risk LST trends over Gharbia governorate decision makers implement effective strategies sustainable land use. Multi-temporal Landsat images were used monitor dynamics from 1991 2018 then simulate 2033 2048. Two comparable models adopted simulation spatiotemporal use area: CA-Markov FAHP-CA-Markov hybrid models. The second model upgrades potential prediction its integration FAHP, which can determine locations high be urbanized. outcomes stated a significant during period—specifically, sprawl land, this predicted carry on. sector represented 91.2% reduced 83.7% 2018. built-up area almost doubled 2048 respect regression revealed due urbanization, causing an heat island phenomenon. Criteria-based reveals district’s vulnerability rapid efficient data-gap zones. results make sense since simulated thoughtful way, considering driving forces LULCC, while relatively random. Therefore, pioneer relied upon future projection. findings work provide better understanding years supporting toward Thus, further should planned avert loss uninterrupted increasing temperatures.